Cave Discovery Rates in Missouri –1950 through 1998

The following is data for the discovery rate of new caves in the state of Missouri:

It appears that the rate of discovery is still on a linear trend line for the period of data –1950 – 1998 (with high correlation). At current projections, the number of caves in the state will reach over 7000 by 2010, although I think that the projection is a bit optimistic. It is highly probable that at some time within the next few years, the discovery rate will begin to flatten, and the number of new caves discovered in the state will slow to less than 100 new caves per year.

This potential slowing in the discovery rate curve is similar to the slowing of discovery rates for many finite natural resources such as oil and gas fields and mineral resources.

In order to continue to discover caves in the state at the current rate, new ideas and concepts need to be applied to the deliberate exploration for new caves.

I would categorize the exploration for new caves by the methods used to discover them:

Phase 1 Primary Exploration Methods

Interviewing of local residents, ridge-field walking, mapping of existing caves, use of topographic maps and aerial photos

Phase 2 Secondary Exploration Methods

Detailed regional hydrogeologic analysis including evaluation of spring discharges, groundwater studies, geologic structure analysis, analysis of caves and relationship to topography, use of remote sensing techniques, temperature surveys, and enhanced smoke testing.

Phase 3 Tertiary Exploration Methods

Geophysical technologies such as microgravity, seismic reflection-refraction, electrical resistivity, thermal imaging, and ground penetrating radar. Use of exotic, inert gases to flood caves to map extent of caves.

Phase 4 ?????

Researchers have used all the above-mentioned technologies to discover new caves, but my belief is that we must proceed to the technologies in Phase 2 and 3 to continue to discover new caves at the old discovery rate of over 100 caves per year. As caves become more difficult to identify, new ideas and techniques will need to be tried to locate them.